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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an race that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd